Tobias S. Buckell debunks the ebook hype

Kaaron Warren pointed me to this insightful blog post from author and blogger Tobias S. Buckell. In it, he addresses the misconceptions in Amazon’s recent media release about their 2010 fourth quarter sales (where ebooks outsold paperbacks for that quarter). He also has some great graphs that deflate some of the hype (basically, he says ebook sales have tripled in the last year, which was beyond his expectation, but the total sales are still well below ‘critical mass’ to up-end the industry.

He predicts the effects of the rise of ebooks will begin to be felt next year, and that sales for both e- and print book have increased, suggesting a broadening of the market:

2012, I think, will be the year we start seeing how this really affects everyone. Book sales are a 23 billion a year industry right now. We’re also seeing that these esales aren’t necessarily *eating* print sales (at least this year, although, even though bookstores are claiming this overall sales still show *print* books moving in aggregate at higher numbers, interesting, huh?), which is also an oddity, as print sales were *up* last year. So for all that people are making strident predictions, I’m not so sure this is all so predictable.

Read the full post here.